News
Globally leading consultancy firm McKinsey & Company yesterday published its third biannual survey on autonomous vehicle technology, the first since 2023.
The report attempts to provide a comprehensive forecast of autonomous technology, offering a deep dive into the current trends and predictions dominating the fast-paced autonomous vehicle industry. Summarising its global findings from 2025, the report began: “Autonomous-vehicle technology is developing rapidly, but the future is still in flux.”
The 2025 report provided a number of significant insights, forecasting longer adoption timelines and notable geographical disparities in autonomous vehicle technology development.
Conducted in January 2025, the survey included 91 decision-makers from around the globe (43 from the European Union, 35 from North America, and 13 from Asia). Respondents represented a mix of start-ups, automotive and transportation experts, and institutions including universities and navigation companies.
Selected for their expertise in the field, these change agents included directors of product management, vice presidents of engineering, chief experience officers, and heads of strategy across multiple sectors.
The findings of the survey were clear: autonomous technology is ramping up across the globe. How and where this technology is ramping is a more complicated portrait.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from the report was its findings on predicted timelines. Relative to its 2023 survey, McKinsey forecast that autonomous vehicle adoption timelines have slipped by an average of one to two years across most use cases.
“While Level 4 robotaxis are now available in the first cities in the United States and China, the global rollout of robotaxis at scale is now expected to become a reality in 2030 rather than 2029”.
The same delay was predicted for private passenger cars and fully autonomous commercial trucks, which are now expected to reach viability by 2032 rather than 2030 and 2031, respectively.
Overall, the report concluded that robotaxis would be the first commercially viable application of Level 4 autonomy, rather than privately owned vehicles.
A second significant finding of the report was that autonomous deployment is expected to vary considerably across geographies, positioning China and the United States as the earliest adopters of autonomous pilots.
The survey provided several contributing factors for this geographical rift. The report stated:
“A number of factors are likely contributing to this regional divide, including faster development cycles, agile commercial organizations and start-up cultures, regulatory support, funding availability, a strong AI and software talent base, built environments that are more conducive to autonomous driving, larger market sizes, and a stronger willingness to test new technologies at scale”.
49% of the survey’s respondents argued that privately owned vehicles are likely to centre on Level 2+ functions rather than the more complex Level 3 systems. The report largely agreed that Level 3 autonomous functionality will be incorporated as a luxury or niche product rather than a mainstream service.
The jury has long been out on where the biggest pain points lie for widespread autonomous deployment—liability, technological limitations, or public opinion? According to the report, by far the greatest stumbling block for ADAS development is cost. Despite continued breakthroughs in AI, the high upfront cost of autonomous technology remains a significant barrier on the road to autonomy.
The report concluded with four tenets for autonomous success, urging industry players to maintain agility and flexibility while keeping a strong focus on customer value.
Keep up-to-date with the latest mobility news by subscribing to MOVEMNT’s free newsletter
