It’s looking likely that several carmakers are facing an existential threat with electrification being pushed and government legislation setting firm targets for green policies.
But when all is said and done, who will still be on the podium by 2030-2035? Carmakers may need to stop producing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and start having a crack at electric vehicles (EV) if they want to stay afloat.
At the Everything Electric London show, a group of car experts came together to discuss which automakers they think will be the front-runners in 10 years time.
Jack Scarlett asked the panel their opinion of who will still be standing. The panel constituted of Paul Clarke the founder and editor of Green Car Guide, Quentin Willson the founder of Faircharge, Derek Reilly the General Manager of Nevo.ie and Founder of the Nevo EV Review Ireland YouTube Channel, and Jess Shanahan the founder of Jet Social.
The discussion began with Quentin Wilson stating that the “hard part” of electrification has already been surpassed. He quoted Bloomberg’s estimation that most western markets have met 5% adoption of electric vehicles which is arguably the hardest era to get through.
Wilson said: “This is where it gets ramped up. We are in the moment in time where it goes from fleet buyers to private buyers.”
Paul Clarke chimed in making reference to the uprising of Chinese brands in the EV market in recent years. Examples of automakers who are currently doing well is BYD. This is arguably due to the sheer volume of cars sales in china compared to any other country.
Clarke stated that car sales per year in China are around 27 million, compared to 14 million in the US and only 2 million in the UK.
Due to these statistics he noted that Asia’s EV market is seeing the most sales currently, therefore making Hyundai, Kia and BYD the predicted ones to watch.
Jess Shanahan noted that legacy car brands only have reputation and brand loyalty to fall back on within the electric transition. New companies from China are storming ahead and people are switching: “People like new things, new brands entering the market can do something different, brand loyalty is in trouble.”
An honourable mention went to Tesla and their potentially fatal misstep with the cyber truck, which was labelled as an “eco fantasy” by the panel moderator, but no mention of whether they would make it to 2035.
